As for the Phillies, their rotation at the moment comprises of Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer (just re-signed), Joe Blanton and a gathering of mediocrities from which they must find a fifth starter (that gathering includes Chan Ho Park, James Happ, Kyle Kendrick, Carlos Carrasco and Andrew Carpenter — the good news for the Phillies is that fifth starters are almost always medocrities). Santana is the best pitcher on either team, but the Phillies have their own ace in Hamels and much better depth.

The Mets get the narrow edge on offense, but Philly has the better bullpen and team defense (the Phillies, according to Ultimate Zone Rating, had the best defense in the NL last season). Ultimately, the NL East in 2009 may be determined by how well the Mets flesh out their rotation. Specifically, they'll need to add at least one quality starting pitcher to the mix. Over at Baseball Think Factory, Chris Dial advocates re-upping with Oliver Perez, and that's a reasonable solution. Another idea is to go after Derek Lowe, who's more consistent than Perez. Ben Sheets is a gamble, but when healthy, he's among the best pitchers in the game — he's another thought. Even Randy Johnson is an option. The point is that unless the Mets add another useful arm to the rotation, they're certainly not going to overtake the Phillies in '09. And even if they do add that arm, the Phillies will still be the rightful favorites.

The Mets' ballyhooed improvements are mostly illusory, and they still have work to do. That's why, as things stand now, K-Rod was dead wrong: The Phillies are the team to beat in the NL East.